The Most Comprehensive Guide to U.S. Politics ... since 1997
| DIRECTORY:
Home | The Presidency
| P2008 Race | State/Federal
Candidates | Political Parties Calendar | Campaign Products & Services | Issues | News Blog | News Links | Job Bank FAQ | View from Abroad | Bookstore | Our Awards | Advertise | About Us | Email Us |
| BLOG ARCHIVE: JUNE 1-15, 2008.
"RON PAUL REVOLUTION" CONTINUES; OBAMA LAUNCHES ANTI-SMEAR SITE; INDY QUITS ORE SENATE RACE; JERSEY US SEN RACE IS COMPETITIVE. PREFACE. My laptop problems continue to worsen (it maybe works 5-15 minutes each time before going to blue screen crash or black), so I've ordered a new laptop. My daily updates may be brief posts until the new laptop arrives (note: this current laptop is my second -- and final -- Sony Vaio). So, in advance, my apologies if my writing is spotty for the next week or so. P2008
- GOP. Congressman P2008 - DEM. Senator Barack Obama launched an official website -- www.fightthesmears.com -- which will serve as his quick response to any false rumors about him and his family. The first falsehood to be debunked is the so-called buzz of a Michelle Obama video in which she railed against "whitey." GOP dirty trickster Roger Stone, who was actively spreading the rumor during TV and radio interviews, now admitted on a subsequent broadcast interview that the story may be "a hoax." OREGON. Former National Endowment for the Arts Chair John Frohnmayer (Independent) -- a staunch critic of the Bush Administration -- ended his US Senate run this week. He explained he was unable to attract the money and support needed to be a viable candidate. Frohnmayer's exit is likely to benefit State House Speaker Jeff Merkley (D) in his challenge to US Senator Gordon Smith (R). NEW
JERSEY. Two new polls this week in US Senate race. The Quinnipiac
University poll shows incumbent Frank Lautenberg (D) leading former
Congressman Dick Zimmer (R) by a 47% to 38% vote. A Rasmussen
Reports poll has Lautenberg ahead by a much closer vote of 45%
to 44%. FREE
SPEECH ZONE. Only an open thread today -- sorry -- due a combination
of a very long work day, feeling under the weather, and serious
computer problems (my laptop is probably days from being totally
dead, with frequent total system crashes, so I'm rapidly backing
up everything). So, have at it. CONGRESSIONAL PRIMARY RESULTS FRO MAINE, S.C. AND VIRGINIA. P2008
- DEMS. Ohio MAINE. Congressman Tom Allen (D) won a lopsided primary win, capturing roughly 85% of the primary vote. Allen will face US Senator Susan Collins (R) in November. Polls give the incumbent the advantange. Incomplete results in CD-1 show former State Senate Majority Leader Chellie Pingree leading Iraq War veteran Adam Cote by a comfortable margin. On the GOP side, former Small Business Administration official Charlie Summers held a narrow lead over businessman Dean Scontras with very incomplete results. SOUTH CAROLINA. US Senator Lindsay Graham (R) won a landslide 2-to-1 primary victory over Republican National Committeeman Buddy Witherspoon. On the Dem side, engineer Bob Conley held a narrow two-point advantage with most votes counted. All three GOP congressional incumbents easily survived their primary contests. VIRGINIA.
Former Governor Mark Warner (D) easily won the US Senate primary,
and is now heavily favored over former Governor Jim Gilmore (R)
in November. In the hot race CD-11 Dem primary, Fairfax County
Council Chair Gerry Connolly won a comfortable victory over former
Congresswoman Leslie Byrne and two others. Connolly is favored
over businessman Keith Fimian (R) for the swing seat being vacated
by retiring Congressman Tom Davis (R). MAINE, S.C. AND VIRGINIA PRIMARY PREVIEW; FILINGS CLOSE IN 4 STATES; YARMUTH HOLDS BIG LEAD IN KY CD-3. MAINE. Congressman Tom Allen (D) will easily trounce his minor primary opponent, and then be on his way to face US Senator Susan Collins (R) in November. The key races of the day are the two primaries fo Allen's open CD-1 seat. Six Democrats and two Republicans are competing. While nearly all of the candidates are "viable" hopefuls, the two Dem frontrunners appear to be former State Senate Majority Leader Chellie Pingree and Iraq War veteran Adam Cote. State Senator Ethan Strimling is probably running a close third. Of the three leaders, Cote appears to be rapidly closing on frontrunner Pingree in these final days. On the GOP side, centrist former Small Business Administration official Charlie Summers seemingly leads conservative businessman Dean Scontras. SOUTH CAROLINA. US Senator Lindsay Graham (R) will cruise to an easy primary victory over Republican National Committeeman Buddy Witherspoon, who is challenging Graham from the right. Both Dems in the US Senate race are third-tier candidates, so it doesn't much matter which man wins the primary. Congressmen Henry Brown (R), Joe Wilson (R) and Bob Inglis (R) shouldn't have problems against their respective GOP primary foes. Brown may face a competitive race in CD-1 in November from wealthy philanthropist Linda Ketner (D).
PRIMARY FILING DEADLINES. Primary filing closed in several states in recent days. Check out the state pages -- Alaska, Arizona, Oklahoma, and Washington -- to see who filed for congress, etc. KENTUCKY.
A new WHAS-TV/SurveyUSA poll shows CD-3 Congressman John Yarmuth
(D) leading former Congresswoman Anne Northup (R) by a vote of
57% to 40%. CLINTON ENDORSES OBAMA; FRANKEN WINS DFL ENDORSEMENT; SEN GRAHAM FACES PRIMARY FROM RIGHT.
MINNESOTA. Humorist and liberal radio talk show host Al Franken won the Democratic endorsement for US Senate at this weekend's convention. Once Franken crossed the 60% mark during the roll call, college professor and peace activist Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer announced he was withdrawing his rival candidacy and moved that Franken's DFL endorsement be unanimous. SOUTH
CAROLINA. US Senator Lindsay Graham (R) faces a primary challenge
on Tuesday from Republican National Committeeman Buddy Witherspoon.
According to the AP, the challenger attacks Graham for being "joined
at the hip" with John McCain on the immigration issue --
a position Witherspoon describes as "Grahamnesty." The
incumbent is expected to easily win his primary. CLINTON, OBAMA MEET; CLINTON'S SUPERS SWITCH TO OBAMA; SON SEEKS TO SABOTAGE DAD'S GOP CONGRESS RUN FOR FOSSELLA SEAT. Hillary
Clinton and Barack Obama met privately on Thursday evening at
Clinton's DC home. CLINTON TO QUIT FRIDAY, ENDORSE OBAMA; McCAIN WANTS WEEKLY DEBATES WITH OBAMA. P2008.
Senator Hillary Clinton bowed on Wednesday to heavy pressure
from her strongest congressional backers. Senators Chuck Schumer
and Barbara Mikulski,
CONGRESSIONAL PRIMARIES. We've updated our Alabama,
California, Iowa, Montana,
New Jersey, New Mexico,
and South Dakota pages to reflect all the
primary winners from Tuesday. The highlights: Congressman Duncan
Hunter's son cruised to an easy GOP primary victory in California
to replace his father ... US Senator Frank Lautenberg (D-NJ) and
Congressman Leonard Boswell (D-IA) easily staved off primary challengers
... Congressman Steve Pearce defeated Congresswoman Heather Wilson
by a 51% to 49% vote in the GOP primary to replace retiring US
Senator Pete Domenici (R) ... and gadfly frequent candidate Bob
Kelleher (R-MT), who previously ran for office as a Green and
a Democrat, defeated a conservative state legislator in the primary
for US Senate. "He's run a number of times, and he has a
degree of name recognition. At some time, that name I.D. begins
to pay off for him, and that may be tonight," said an embarrassed
State GOP Chair Erik Iverson to the Billings Gazette. EDITORIAL: DRAFT AL GORE FOR VICE PRESIDENT. AMERICA WINS WITH OBAMA-GORE.
OBAMA WINS DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION, PASSES 2118 DELEGATE MARK. P2008
- DEMS. Senator Barack Obama "SUPER TUESDAY" RESULTS FOR CONGRESSIONAL RACES IN AL, CA, IA, MT, NJ, NM & SD. NEW
JERSEY. US Senator ALABAMA. Two open seats were on Tuesday's ballot. In CD-2, Congressman Terry Everett (R) is retiring. State Representative Jay Love finished first in the six-way GOP primary with 37%. Love faces a run-off against State Senator Harri Anne Smith, who was second with 21%. Montgomery Mayor Bobby Bright rolled to a landslide victory on the Dem side, capturing 71% against two opponents. In CD-5, Congressman Bud Cramer (D) is retiring. State Senator Parker Griffith -- a Blue Dog Dem much like Cramer -- won his primary with 90%. Businessman Wayne Parker was first in the six-way Republican primary with 49%, so he will likely face a run-off against attorney Cheryl Guthrie, who trailed Parker by 31-points. CALIFORNIA. We'll report on these primaries tomorrow, due to the late poll closing times (as Politics1 is based in the Eastern time zone). IOWA. In CD-3, Congressman Leonard Boswell (D) defeated progressive former State Representative Ed Fallon by a 60% to 40% vote. The GOP contest for US Senate was a near three-way tie between the little-known hopefuls, so it may be a day or two before a winner is declared.
SOUTH
DAKOTA. State Representative Joel Dykstra won the three-way
GOP primary for US Senate. Dykstra, a second-tier candidate, is
an major longshot against US Senator Tim Johnson (D) in November. PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY SEASON COMES TO AN END ... AND IT'S "SUPER TUESDAY" FOR CONGRESSIONAL PRIMARIES IN AL, CA, IA, MT, NJ, NM & SD. P2008
- DEMS. The long Presidential primary season finally draws
to a close with the final two primaries -- South Dakota and Montana
-- on Tuesday. A new ARG poll shows ALABAMA. Two open seat contests on Tuesday's ballot. In CD-2, Congressman Terry Everett (R) is retiring. State Senator Harri Anne Smith, State Representatives Jay Love and David Grimes, and three others are seeking the GOP nomination. Montgomery Mayor Bobby Bright is favored to win the Dem nod over state NOW president Cheryl Sabel and one other. In CD-5, Congressman Bud Cramer (D) is retiring. State Senator Parker Griffith -- a Blue Dog Dem much like Cramer -- will easily win his primary. Six Republicans -- two attorneys, two businessmen, a surgeon, and a symphony musician -- are fighting for the right to face Griffith in November. CALIFORNIA. Lots of congressional and state legislative races on Tuesday's ballot. CD-4: Congressman John Doolittle (R), a target of the ongoing Abramoff lobbying scandal, is retiring. The two leading GOP candidates are centrist former Congressman Doug Ose and conservative State Senator Tom McClintock. Ose retired a few years ago, but now wants to return to DC. McClintock, a favorite of party activists on the right and with high name ID from his frequent runs for statewide office, moved half-way across the state to run for this open seat. The winner will face retired USAF officer and '06 nominee Charlie Brown (D) in November. CD-52: Congressman Duncan Hunter (R) is retiring and hopes to hand his seat to his son Duncan D. Hunter, a businessman and Iraq War veteran. High identical name ID and overt help from his father make Hunter a frontrunner, but San Diego County Board of Education President Bob Watson and Santee City Councilman Brian Jones are making spirited runs. IOWA. In CD-3, Congressman Leonard Boswell (D) faces an aggressive primary challenge from progressive former State Representative Ed Fallon, but polls show Boswell leading by a comfortable margin. MONTANA (AND SOUTH DAKOTA). Montana has a gubernatorial, a US Senate and a congressional primary -- but the only races of note are the open seat primary contests for Attorney General and State Superintendent of Public Instruction. South Dakota is even more boring, with only an insignificant GOP primary for US Senate. NEW
JERSEY. US Senator NEW MEXICO. Retiring US Senator Pete Domenici (R) finally threw his primary support this weekend behind centrist Congresswoman Heather Wilson, but it may be too late. A new Albuquerque Journal poll shows conservative Congressman Steve Pearce leading Wilson by a 45% to 39% vote in the GOP primary. The new SurveyUSA poll shows Pearce leading by a 48% to 47% vote. Recent polls show both Wilson and Pearce trailing Congressman Tom Udall (D) by landslide margins in the general election. NORTH
CAROLINA. A new PPP poll shows US Senator Elizabeth Dole (R)
leading State Senator Kay Hagan (D) by a vote of 47% to 39%. DNC RESOLVES FL, MI DELEGATE FIGHT; CLINTON WINS BIG IN PUERTO RICO; GILMORE BARELY WINS VA GOP US SEN CONVO; WYO FILING CLOSES. P2008
- DNC. The DNC Rules P2008 - PUERTO RICO. Hillary Clinton romped to a giant landslide in Puerto Rico on Sunday, defeating Barack Obama by a vote of 68% to 32%. She spent extensive time in the state over the past week, which paid off in the results. However, the island did not provide Clinton with the real results she needed in popular vote. She was counting on a turnout of roughly two million voters -- along with her landslide win -- to push her past Obama in total primary popular vote nationwide. Instead, the total turnout was less than 400,000. Island pundits said the low turnout was reflective of a lack of excitement for the primary because island voters do not get to vote in the Presidential general election. The low turnout in Puerto Rico means Obama is now assured of finishing the primary season on Tuesday night with more total popular votes than Clinton, along with a majority of the pledged delegates. VIRGINIA.
In a surprise, WYOMING.
Primary candidate filing closed in Wyoming
on Friday. US Senator Mike Enzi (R) and interim US Senator John
Barrasso (R) both face opposition, but each appear safe for November.
The lone competitive race in November will be the race to replace
retiring Congresswoman Barbara Cubin (R). The incumbent barely
won re-election two years ago by just over 1,000 votes against
businessman Gary Trauner (D). Trauner is unopposed for the Dem
nod this year. By contrast, four Republicans are competing in
the August 19 primary. Former State Treasurer Cynthia Lummis is
expected to win the GOP contest. House race rating: Leans GOP. |
JOIN
THE POLITICS1
BLOG
ARCHIVE:
POLITICAL BLOG ROLL: KINDA
NEUTRAL: DEM/LEFT: GOP/RIGHT: OTHER: For those who would like to track Politics1 with a newsreader, we publish a RSS feed:
|
Ron
Paul finally ended his maverick libertarian run for the GOP Presidential
nomination. Instead, Paul announced Thursday he is launching a
new national organization: 
Governor
Ted Strickland (D) has ruled out being considered for the VP spot.
On Tuesday, Strickland told the Washington Post: "If
drafted I will not run, nominated I will not accept, and if elected
I will not serve. So, I don't know how more crystal clear I can
be."
VIRGINIA.
Former Governor Mark Warner (D) faces nominal primary opposition
in the US Senate race. Warner will face former Governor Jim Gilmore
(R) in November. Bombastic Congressman Jim Moran (D) again faces
a primary challenge, but he should win by a comfortable margin.
The hot race to watch is the Dem primary for the CD-11 swing seat,
where Congressman Tom Davis (R) is retiring. Fairfax County Council
Chair Gerry Connolly and former Congresswoman Leslie Byrne are
locked in a tough fight, and they are far ahead of the other two
hopefuls. The winner will face businessman Keith Fimian (R). 
P2008.
Hillary Clinton formally ended her Presidential run on Saturday,
with gracious and repeated endorsements of former rival Barack
Obama. Clinton pledged to work tirelessly for Obama for the November
election. "The way to continue our fight now, to accomplish
the goals for which we stand is to take our energy, our passion,
our strength and do all we can to help elect Barack Obama the
next president of the United States ... Today, I am standing with
Senator Obama to say, ‘Yes we can.' ... We may have started
on separate journeys, but today our paths have merged," said
Clinton. Critics -- even those who had been seeminly hostile to
her during the campaign -- praised her speech as among the best
of her political career. Within a short time after her speech,
she changed her HillaryClinton.com website (right) to display
a prominent homepage message urging her supporters to volunteer
for the Obama campaign. In return, the Obama campaign site carries
a homepage message praising Clinton and urging his supporters
to send her a message of thanks. And -- just in case all those
false Muslim rumors about Obama don't work -- some Republicans
have a new smear tactic. According to US News, here is
what former House Majority Leader Tom DeLay (R-TX) said on a radio
show this week: "I have said publicly, and I will again,
that unless he proves me wrong, [Obama] is a Marxist." Also,
Congressman Tim Mahoney (D-FL) said he will not endorse Obama
for the nomination -- despite Clinton's withdrawal -- because
his district overwhelmingly voted for Clinton in the primary.
Congressman
Charlie Rangel and several others reportedly expressed displeasure
with the ungracious tone of her election night remarks on Tuesday
-- particularly her failure to openly recognize and endorse Senator
Barack Obama as the nominee. In response, Clinton agreed to end
her campaign by Friday and openly endorse Obama either Friday
or Saturday. In a press release Wednesday evening, Clinton's campaign
confirmed she will quit and endorse Obama this week. Various other
media reports now indicate that Clinton is unlikely to push for
the VP spot, as her husband does not want to release the detailed
financial records about his business interests and foundation
that Obama's VP Screening Committee needs to properly vet all
potential runningmates and spouses. In related news, Senator John
McCain -- a day after what was universally viewed as having delivered
a dismal nationally televised speech -- challenged Obama to participate
in a series of weekly town hall-style forums, starting in New
York in two weeks. Obama's campaign expressed general support
for the concept, but they aren't sure the two men need to start
weekly forums five months before the election. McCain wants the
events to have local moderators and take a few audience questions.
Obama prefers to Lincoln-Douglas style of forum in which there
would be no moderator, and the two men would directly engage each
other in a a series of debates on various issues.
Senator
Barack Obama needs a Vice Presidential runningmate who will calm
older, union, Jewish, blue collar and white voters who voted for
Hillary Clinton ... voters who still admire the Clintons ... voters
concerned about Obama's experience in foreign policy. Yet a runningmate
who shares Obama's progressive agenda. Picking Hillary Clinton
for VP, for example, is simply a terrible choice. She entirely
undercuts the message of change, canceling out the change message
by adding a runningmate who is a leading practitioner of the dark
and destructive political art of triangulation. Yet there is someone
else out there who has a solid past association with the Clintons
... who is untainted by the most unsavory moments of the Clinton
White House years ... who is a Vietnam War veteran ... who has
extensive government credentials on environmental protection and
national security ... who has won both the Nobel Peace Prize and
an Oscar ... and yet who remains a believable agent for change
and health care and peace and for healing our planet. History
shows us a former Vice President can return to political office
and serve with honor and distinction. VP Hubert Humphrey, after
a very narrow loss for President in 1968, returned to the US Senate
in 1970 and served there for the remainder of his life. So I say
"Draft Gore." Draft Gore because he believes in the
concept of a higher calling, of service to nation and planet,
who would appreciate the unique opportunity to return to public
service to advance his causes ... and maybe even be given the
opportunity to become President in 2016. While associated with
the "old," Gore is clearly a proven agent of real change
who can unify our party, and unify our nation. Obama-Gore '08.
Show your support by downloading one of these banners and placing
them on your websites and blogs. 
secured the endorsements of enough superdelegates that -- combined
with a majority of all of the pledged delegates elected nationwide
during the five month primary season -- he now has more than the
2,118 delegates needed to win the Democratic Presidential nomination.
When Obama started his run in January 2007, many thought he would
make a respectable run but few thought he had any real shot at
catching presumptive frontrunner Hillary Clinton. Obama built
a solid netroots organization, coupled with field organizations
deployed in every state and a key understanding of the party's
arcane delegate selection rules. Clinton, by contrast, relied
upon her family's political organization, expectations of inevitability,
and a belief the front-loaded primary schedule would prove more
favorable to her. Obama's Iowa caucus victory threw off Clinton's
strategy and, by the time she truly regained her political footing
starting with the Pennsylvania primary, it was simply too late
for her to realistically catch Obama. Despite failing to win the
nomination, Clinton broke the perceived "glass ceiling"
for female Presidential candidates in that she was treated throughout
as a viable, forceful frontrunner. If anything, it was the miscalculation
in her 2002 vote to authorize the Iraq War -- not her gender --
that compromised her bid. Most interestingly, it was "the
white guys" -- Biden, Dodd, Edwards, etc. -- who were knocked
out of the race early. In her remarks Tuesday night, Clinton acknowledged
Obama's success -- without directly calling him the presumptive
nominee -- and pledged to work for the Democratic ticket in November.
Most Clinton insiders now seem to agree that Clinton very much
is interested in being Obama's VP runningmate -- although the
Obama camp appears to be cool to the option. By the way, Clinton
won the South Dakota primary and Obama won the Montana primary
on Tuesday. 
Frank
Lautenberg (D) rolled to a landslide primary renomination victory
over Congressman Rob Andrews. The 84-year-old incumbent portrayed
himself as the more progressive choice. Andrews was hit repeatedly
for being a disloyal opportunist and the leading House Democratic
co-sponsor of President Bush's Iraq War resolution in 2002. Former
Congressman Dick Zimmer won a comfortable victory in the GOP primary
for US Senate, but he remains a decided underdog against Lautenberg
in November. In the open CD-1 race, Andrews' wife Camille easily
won the Democratic nomination to replace her husband. However,
she appears likely to step aside so that local party leaders can
replace her on the general election ballot with her husband. In
CD-3, Medford Town Councilman Chris Myers won the GOP primary.
He will face State Senator John Adler (D) in November for the
swing seat being vacated by retiring Congressman Jim Saxton (R).
In the open CD-7 race, State Senator Minority Leader Leonard Lance
won the crowded GOP primary. Lance is favored in November over
State Assemblywoman Linda Stender (D). 
NEW
MEXICO. With a little over half the votes counted, centrist
Congresswoman Heather Wilson trailed conservative Congressman
Steve Pearce by a 52% to 48% vote. The GOP winner will face Congressman
Tom Udall (D) in November. All three of the state's congressional
seats are also open. In CD-1, Bernalillo County Sheriff Darren
White (R) easily won his primary. On the Dem side, Albuquerque
City Councilor Martin Heinrich was leading his nearest opponent
by over 20-points. The Dem and GOP races in CD-2 and CD-3 remained
too close to call, as votes were slow to be reported during the
evening.
Hillary
Clinton leading Barack Obama in South Dakota by a 60% to 34% vote.
Most other polls show the SD contest as being rather close. Another
ARG poll out Monday shows Obama leading Clinton by a 48% to 44%
vote. Campaigning in South Dakota on Monday, former President
Bill Clinton signaled the end of his wife's campaign this week.
NBC reported he told the crowd: "This may be the last day
I'm ever involved in a campaign of this kind ... it has been,
one of the greatest honors of my life to go around and campaign
for [Hillary] for President." Obama's campaign is trying
to secure endorsements from a sufficient number of superdelegates
by the end of the day Tuesday so as to enable him to proclaim
himself the nominee in his Minnesota speech that evening. As of
Monday evening -- with the new endorsements of Congressmen Jim
Clyburn (D-SC) and John Spratt (D-SC) -- Obama is just 38.5 votes
shy of the nomination. MSNBC reported "over 30" supers
will endorse Obama during the day on Tuesday. Clinton, by contrast,
is returning to NYC to give her final rally speech of the season.
She has reportedly invited key backers and big donors to attend,
implying she will end her campaign in the Tuesday night remarks
-- and possibly even endorse Obama. Seemingly confirming this,
the Clinton campaign advance/field staff have already been notified
via email that their jobs will end after Tuesday and that all
staffers should submit their final expense reports by the end
of the week.
former
Governor and former Republican National Chair Jim Gilmore was
barely able to win the GOP nomination for the open US Senate seat
at Saturday's state convention. Party leaders had picked the convention
format -- over a primary -- to help Gilmore avoid a challenge
from centrist Congressman Tom Davis, as Virginia GOP conventions
are routinely dominated by Religious Right activists. State Delegate
Bob Marshall challenged Gilmore for the nomination, arguing the
pro-life Gilmore was insufficiently conservative on abortion and
immigration issues. The convention vote: Gilmore - 5,222, Marshall
- 5,167. Polling shows Gilmore trailing former Governor Mark Warner
(D) by double-digit margins. The most recent financial reports
show Warner with a cash-on-hand of $5.2 million versus just $205,000
for Gilmore. Race rating: DEM Favored.
The
Presidency | P2008 Race | The
States | Calendar | Blog Archives
Political Parties | News
Links | Issues | Job Bank
| Issues | FAQ
Campaign Products & Services | Campaign
Buttons | Bookstore | About
Us | E-Mail
© 1997-2008 by Ron Gunzburger. All rights reserved.