BLOG ARCHIVE: JANUARY - MARCH 2010.

NEWS UPDATE: APRIL 12, 2010.
P2012: Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney won the straw ballot by a margin of one vote at this weekend's Southern Republican Leadership Conference in New Orleans. Romney captured 439 votes (24%), which placed him just ahead of Congressman Ron Paul at 438 votes (24%). Former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin was third with 18%, followed by Newt Gingrich in fourth with 18%, and Mike Huckabee fifth with 4%. Four others trailed behind. Romney and Paul both had organized efforts focused on the straw ballot, while the others did not. However, Romney skipped the event -- while Palin, Paul and Gingrich all attended and spoke at the SRLC gathering.
US SUPREME COURT. US Supreme Court Justice John Paul Stevens -- originally appointed to the court by President Ford -- announced Friday he will retire at the end of the current term. The White House was apparently alerted in advance of the move, as they reportedly already are down to a short-list of potential replacements. The President has vowed he expects the replacement will be seated by the start of the next court term this October. Some Senate Republicans are already threatening to filibuster any nominee whom they do not consider sufficiently centrist. However, most expect the President to replace the liberal Stevens with an equally liberal replacement.
NEVADA. Calls are growing for embattled US Senator John Ensign (R) to resign -- and the loudest calls now are coming from some prominent Republican leaders in the state. Ensign is the target of an FBI corruption probe related to various federal violations including his alleged use of campaign funds to secretly pay hush money to the family of a woman with which he had an extramarital affair. Congressman Dean Heller (R-NV) was the latest to suggest Ensign quit, arguing Ensign has become a political distraction who is hurting the GOP ticket's electoral chances in the state this year. Ensign does not face reelection until 2012.
MICHIGAN. Congressman Bart Stupak (D) -- the vocal pro-life Dem who ultimately helped cobble together the legislative coalition responsible for passage President Obama's health care reform legislation -- announced his retirement Friday. Despite being targeted by Tea Party activists for defeat, Stupak was strongly favored to win reelection. Instead, he said he had been contemplating retirement for several years and decided this was the right time. In his retirement remarks, Stupak said the passage of health care reform was the proudest achievement of his legislative career and had been his top personal priority during his 18 years in Congress. Until we see who gets into the contest -- as both sides have several major hopefuls looking at it -- we are moving it from Dem Favored to the Toss-Up category.
CALENDAR. Upcoming events to watch this week are the close of primary candidate filing in New Jersey on April 12 (Monday) and the Florida CD-19 special election on April 13 (Tuesday). State Senator Ted Deutch (D) is a safe bet to win and replace former Congressman Robert Wexler (D), who resigned to take a pro-Israel think-tank position..
04.12.10 >>

NEWS UPDATE: MARCH 31, 2010.
GREER GETS STONED IN FLORIDA: Now it can be told. In November 2008, Politics1 became the first to report on Florida Republican Party Chair Jim Greer's lavish personal spending at party expense. Private jets, international junkets, huge dinners and parties, hundreds of thousands of dollars charged to party credit cards. On Wednesday, at the request of state party officials and Attorney General Bill McCollum (R), the Florida Department of Law Enforcement is proceeding with a criminal embezzlement investigation of Greer. Allegations have now surfaced that he co-owned a company which -- through the RPOF's former executive director -- may have illegally skimmed at least $200,000 from party, disguised as payments to other vendors. Greer has already lawyered up. The interesting angle on this story: our source for all of these early stories, which were quickly picked up by the Florida and national media, was Nixonite hatchetman Roger Stone. The same Stone who helped bring down former New York Governor Eliot Spitzer in a prostitution sex scandal. Now that FDLE is involved, Stone said I was free to divulge that he was my "Deep Throat" source on Greer's spending habits. Stone is busy these days having fun some mocking "Client No. 9" Spitzer by running his friend Kristin Davis (Independent) -- a former hedge fund executive-turned-escort service madam -- for New York Governor. She's running on a pro-marijuana legalization, pro-prostitution legalization and pro-gay marriage platform. All, not coincidentally, positions that Stone himself espouses.
03.31.10 >>

NEWS UPDATE & OPEN THREAD FOR THE WEEK OF MARCH 29, 2010.
WHITE HOUSE: With the health care reform victory now behind him, President Obama made a surprise visit to Afghanistan on Sunday. The President visited with US troops and injured soldiers, then met with Afghan President Hamid Karzai. Also, during the current Congressional Easter recess, the President plans to make at least 15 controversial "recess appointments." Under this process, individuals are appointed to serve until the end of the current Congress in federal positions without requiring Senate confirmation -- even though the posts normally require confirmation. The White explained it is making these specific recess appointments because the Senate has refused for months to act on these pending nominations. President George W. Bush made over 170 recess appointments during his eight years in office.
FLORIDA: Governor Charlie Crist and former Florida House Speaker Marco Rubio -- GOP rivals for the open US Senate nomination -- met in their first televised debate on Sunday. The both men exchanged many jabs, ranging from ideology to embarrassing personal spending questions. Rubio again positioned himself as the reliable conservative, while Crist openly embraced his more pragmatic record. Crist even went so far as to proudly defend his support for the federal stimulus program, saying Florida needed the money to help get through the state's tough financial collapse. On the Democratic side, Congressman Kendrick Meek this week is expected to become the first statewide candidate in Florida history to successfully qualify for the ballot by the petition process. Instead of paying roughly a $10,000 filing fee, Meek gathered over 130,000 ballot petitions signed by registered voters.
MARYLAND: As expected, former Governor Bob Ehrlich (R) had decided to seek a rematch against the man who ousted him four years ago. Ehrlich is expected to formally launch his run in April. However, incumbent Governor Martin O'Malley (D) must first survive what is expected to be a very tough Dem primary challenge from former Prince George's County Executive Wayne Curry. Friends of Curry tell Politics1 they believe Curry is certain to run, and that Curry has talked with Mark Shriver -- brother of California First Lady Maria Shriver -- about being his Lieutenant Governor runningmate.
KANSAS: Four months after Congressman Dennis Moore (D) announced his retirement -- saying it was "time for a new generation of leadership to step forward" -- the Democrats finally have a candidate to run in this very tough swing district. The "new" candidate: Stephene Moore, a nurse and the wife of Congressman Moore. With Moore in the race, move this race rating back from Leans GOP to Toss-Up.
03.29.10 >>

NEWS UPDATE & OPEN THREAD FOR THE WEEK OF MARCH 22, 2010.
HEALTH CARE: Congressional Democrats and the White House scored a monumental legislative victory on Sunday night, with passage of the Dems' healthcare reform legislation. President Obama is expected to sign it into law on Monday. Tea Party demonstrators descended on the Capitol during the weekend session, producing at times some ugly exchanges between legislators and angry protesters. Most analysts -- regardless of whether they supported or opposed the proposal -- say the legislation will be the most significant progressive victory in Congress in over four decades. In a column published Sunday, former Bush White House speech writer David Frum wrote: "Conservatives and Republicans today suffered their most crushing legislative defeat since the 1960s. It’s hard to exaggerate the magnitude of the disaster. Conservatives may cheer themselves that they’ll compensate for today’s expected vote with a big win in the November 2010 elections. But: (1) It’s a good bet that conservatives are over-optimistic about November – by then the economy will have improved and the immediate goodies in the healthcare bill will be reaching key voting blocs. (2) So what? Legislative majorities come and go. This healthcare bill is forever. A win in November is very poor compensation for this debacle now." In related news, the Gallup tracking poll saw the President's approval rating return to the 50% mark over the weekend.
NEW YORK: Suffolk County Executive and former State Assemblyman Steve Levy -- who had previously announced his intention to run for Governor as a Democrat -- switched to the GOP on Friday. The move was encouraged by some party leaders, who were concerned former Congressman Rick Lazio has proven in polls to be much weaker than expected in the gubernatorial race. Wealthy businessman Carl Paladino and former Lieutenant Governor Betsy McCaughey are among other Republicans still looking at the race. Attorney General Andrew Cuomo, who has yet to formally enter the contest, is certain to be the Democratic nominee. Cuomo starts as heavy favorite to win in November. Governor David Paterson (D) is not running.
NORTH DAKOTA: As expected, the ND Republican Party tapped Governor John Hoeven to be US Senate nominee at Saturday's state nominating convention. Hoeven captured 79% of the delegate votes against a conservative foe who argued Hoeven, a former Dem, was too centrist. The Democrats are expected to nominate State Senator Tracy Potter in the US Senate race at their convention. US Senator Byron Dorgan (D) is retiring. In the contest to face Congressman Earl Pomeroy (D), the GOP nominated State Representative Rick Berg. Hoeven is a safe bet to win the Senate race, while Pomeroy is favored to win another term.
P2012: Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee (R) last week sounded like he is unlikely to made a second White House run in two years. A new PPP national poll last week of likely GOP primary voters showed Huckabee in second place with 24%, just four points behind leader Mitt Romney, and one point ahead of Sarah Palin. Speaking at New York University, Huckabee said he was very happy with his current work as a FOX News show host. He added: "I'm not sure I'm in a place in my life, personally, that I can afford to take off two years and not have an income."
FILING DEADLINES: Candidate filing closed last week in Maine, California, Utah, Iowa and Idaho.Click on the state names to see the filed candidates. The California list is woefully incomplete, as the state has not yet posted the final list of certified primary candidates.
03.22.10 >>

NEWS UPDATE & OPEN THREAD FOR THE WEEK OF MARCH 15, 2010.
HEALTH CARE: White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs predicted Sunday that the Democratic health care reform legislation will "be the law of the land" by next weekend. President Obama delayed an overseas trip to stay in town for the showdown this week. Meanwhile, to help round-up the last few votes needed in the House, the AFL-CIO is reportedly threatening to help primary vulnerable House Dems who vote against adoption this week.
FILING DEADLINES: Candidate filing closed last week in Arkansas, and March 9 in Pennsylvania and Oregon. Click on the state names to see the filed candidates.
UPCOMING CALENDAR: Candidate primary filing closes on March 15 in Maine, March 17 in California and March 19 in Utah and Idaho.
03.15.10 >>

NEWS UPDATE & OPEN THREAD FOR THE WEEK OF MARCH 8, 2010.
NEW YORK: Freshman Congressman Eric Massa (D) announced Wednesday he will not seek reelection, saying his cancer had returned. On Friday, Massa announced his retirement -- expressing "a profound sense of failure and a deep apology to all" -- after being named in an ethics investigation related to gay sex harassment conduct aimed at male staffers in his office. Massa, a married father of two, was a career military officer before entering politics. Massa's CD-29 moves into the toss-up column, with many prominent local names looking at the race in both major parties.
MASSACHUSETTS: Congressman Bill Delahunt (D) announced Thursday that he will retire this year. The CD-10 seat favors the Democrats, but some of the potential Republicans have the potential to make this open seat race competitive.
FILING DEADLINES: Candidate filing closed last week in Mississippi and primary filing closed in Nebraska. Click on the state names to view the list of filed candidates.
ILLINOIS: It took a full month after the February 2 primary to determine a winner in the GOP primary for Governor. But, after a recount, State Senator Bill Brady was declared the winner by 193 votes over his nearest rival. Brady will challenge Governor Pat Quinn (D) on the November ballot. Others running include attorney Rich Whitney (Green), auto worker Lex Green (Libertarian), and retired USMC veteran Randy Stufflebeam (Constitution).
UPCOMING CALENDAR: Candidate primary filing closes on March 8 in Arkansas, and March 9 in Pennsylvania and Oregon.
03.08.10 >>

NEWS UPDATE & OPEN THREAD FOR THE WEEK OF MARCH 1, 2010.
TEXAS: Voters cast primary ballots on Tuesday in several hot races. Top of the list to watch is the GOP gubernatorial contest between Governor Rick Perry, US Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison, and Ron Paul/Tea Party activist Debra Medina. Polls continue to show Perry in the mid-40s, but with his numbers creeping up. If Perry falls short of the majority mark, he'll face Hutchison in a run-off on April 13. Houston Mayor Bill White is a safe bet to win the Dem nomination for Governor. Other races worth watching are the Dem contest for Lieutenant Governor, and several congressional races.
GEORGIA: Congressman John Linder (R) announced Friday that he will not seek reelection to a tenth term this year. Linder's district is safely Republican, so the GOP primary contest will determine the who fills the CD-7 seat. Expect a very crowded GOP primary.
NEW YORK: Tea Party leaders in the Empire State have approached billionaire real estate developer Carl Paladino about running for Governor. Incumbent Governor David Paterson (D) announced this week, in the wake of scandal, that he will not run. That move left the path clear for Attorney General Andrew Cuomo to be the Democratic nominee. Former Congressman Rick Lazio is currently the leading GOP candidate for Governor, but polls repeatedly show Lazio trailing Cuomo by lopsided margins. According to a well-placed source involved with the Tea Party-Paladino talks, Paladino is seriously interested in running on two ballot lines in the general election: Republican and Tea Party. Apparently, the game plan is to create a formal NY Tea Party and petition Paladino onto the ballot with that guaranteed ballot spot. Paladino reportedly told the conservative activists he would be willing to spend at least $10 million of his own money if he decides to run. NY state law permits candidates to run on multiple party lines, with the cumulative total cast for each candidate determining the winner of the race.
INDIANA: Congressman Brad Ellsworth is now certain to be the Democratic Party's designated nominee to replace retiring US Senator Evan Bayh (D) on the November ballot. The State Democratic Committee will select the nominee. Congressman Baron Hill said last week he would step aside in favor of Ellsworth, ensuring Ellsworth can quickly be crowned the nominee without intraparty opposition. CD-8 Democratic leaders would next have to select a replacement for Ellsworth on the congressional ballot. Evansville Mayor Jonathan Weinzapfel is rumored to be the favorite to replace Ellsworth in the CD-8 race.
HEALTH CARE: All signs indicate President Obama and the Democratic congressional leaders will announce mid-week that -- because of Republican obstructionism -- they will go forward with the reconciliation process in the Senate to enact the Democratic health care reform plan. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi believes she now has the 217 votes needed to approve the package. Likewise, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid thinks he too has the 51 (or 50 + Vice President Biden's tie-breaking vote) needed to advance the legislation to the President's desk for signature. By using the controversial reconciliation process, Reid can use Senate rules to block Republicans from using filibuster tactics to further stall or kill the health care reform package.
CALENDAR: Candidate filing closes on March 1 in Mississippi and Nebraska.
03.01.10 >>

NEWS UPDATE & OPEN THREAD FOR THE WEEK OF FEBRUARY 22, 2010. TEXAS: All polling shows Governor Rick Perry (R) heading towards a primary renomination victory on March 2. While Perry consistantly polls in the mid-40s, he is not yet about the needed majority mark to avoid an April 13 run-off -- likely against US Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison. However, polls have shown Hutchison in the mid-20s and Ron Paul/Tea Party activist Debra Medina in the upper teens, so there is an outside possibility Hutchison could face the embarrassing prospect of a third place finish. Houston Mayor Bill White (D) faces only nominal gubernatorial primary opposition, so he is likely to score an outright win next week ... CPAC: While the conservative Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) convo saw an impressive 10,000 attendees this weekend, the Presidential straw poll -- formerly seen as influential -- was rendered largely meaningless with the victory of libertarian Congressman Ron Paul (R-TX). Less than a quarter of the attendees voted in the straw poll, and the announcement of the results was greeted with loud boos from the convention floor. The result was seen as an embarrassment for both CPAC and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, who has previously won CPAC straw polls. Paul captured 31%, Romney had 22%, and Sarah Palin was third with 7%. "CPAC has become increasingly more libertarian and less Republican over the last years, one of the reasons I didn’t go this year," explained Mike Huckabee to Fox News on Sunday. Yet another reason for discounting the results is that Paul himself is seen as unlikely to make a third White House run in 2012. Instead, Paul is believed to be encouraging former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson to run. One loser at the event was Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty, who gave an unimpressive speech and finished fourth in the straw poll with just 6% ... NEW JERSEY: US Senator Frank Lautenberg (D) was hospitalized last week and later diagnosed with stomach cancer. Lautenberg, 86, was already expected to retire when he next faces reelection in 2014 ... OHIO: Primary filing closed on February 18, but the Secretary of State's office has yet to release a complete list of all filed candidates. Check out our Ohio list and let us know if any filed candidates are missing. Despite this inability to confirm all details, it is clear there will be no gubernatorial primary -- and that former Congressman Rob Portman is unopposed for the GOP nomination for US Senate. Lieutenant Governor Lee Fisher and Secretary of State Jennifer Bruner, plus two unknowns, are competing for the Dem nomination for US Senate. Flamboyant former Congressman Jim Traficant (D) -- recently released from federal prison and now working as a radio talk show host -- missed the filing deadline to challenge Congressman Tim Ryan (D) in the primary. However, Traficant says he is now considering running as an Independent.
02.22.10 >>

NEWS UPDATE & OPEN THREAD FOR THE WEEK OF FEBRUARY 15, 2010. PENNSYLVANIA: Congressman Jack Murtha (D) died last week of complications apparently caused by medical malpractice during gall bladder surgery. Dems are now quickly racing to find a candidate for the swing CD-12 seat. Joyce Murtha (D), widow of the Congressman, is contemplating the race. So is State Senator John Wozniak (D), a close Murtha friend. Retired Army officer and '08 nominee William Russell and two others are competing in the GOP primary ... NEW MEXICO: Candidate filing for the June 1 primary closed last week. While Lieutenant Governor Diane Denish was unopposed for the Democratic nomination for Governor, five Republicans will compete to face Denish in November. The open Lt Gov primary is also hotly contested on both sides. Click here for the list of all filed candidates ... FLORIDA: Congressman Lincoln Diaz-Balart (R) -- pictured at left on his 1992 campaign pin -- announced Thursday he will not seek reelection to his CD-21 seat. Instead, his brother Congressman Mario Diaz-Balart (R) announced he will abandon his CD-25 seat and seek reelection this year by running in his brother's open CD-21 seat. The CD-21 seat is more heavily Republican, so Mario can avoid a tougher fight in the rapidly shifting CD-25 seat. State Representative David Rivera (R), who already has over $1 million in his State Senate campaign account, is the early GOP frontrunner for Mario's open CD-25 seat. Former Dade County Democratic Chair Joe Garcia, who gave Mario a tough race two years ago, is expected to be again be the Dem nominee ... RHODE ISLAND: The surprise of the week was unexpected retirement of Congressman Patrick Kennedy (D). Candidates were quick to jump into the CD-1 race, which generally favors the Dems. The first three to enter the contest: Providence Mayor David Cicilline, State Repesentative Jon Brien and State Democratic Chair Bill Lynch. Brien, a moderate Dem, had been contemplating challenging Kennedy from the right in the primary. Lots of other Dems are looking at the race. State House Minority Whip John Loughlin is the GOP candidate. Former Providence Mayor Buddy Cianci (Independent), a popular radio talk show host and convicted felon, is also looked at the seat ... NEVADA: Vulnerable US Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D) got some surprisingly good news. The Las Vegas Sun reports a new conservative political party named the Tea Party has qualified for the November ballot and is fielding businessman Jon Ashjian for the Senate seat. The move is certain to drain some conservative votes in November from whomever wins the crowded GOP primary ... MICHIGAN: Congressman Vern Ehlers (R), 75, changed his plans and announced his retirement. The move came just days after conservative State Representative Justim Amish announced he would challenge the moderate Ehlers in the GOP primary. With Ehlers out, nearly a dozen other prominent names are making calls about the CD-3 race ... CALIFORNIA:Congresswoman Diane Watson (D) announced her retirement. Unlike the hotly contested contests for all of the above open seats, this one already appears to be a lock. Term-limited State Assembly Speaker Karen Bass (D) is openly contemplating the race. If Bass runs, she's a safe bet to easily win ... TEXAS: Colorful former Congressman Charlie Wilson (D) died last Wednesday at age 76. Wilson was memorialized in the book and movie Charlie Wilson's War, which highlighted his role in ensuring stealth funding for the anti-Soviet mujahideen forces in Afghanistan in the 1980s. While the Islamic mujahideen forces drove the Soviets out of the country, they soon morphed into what became the Taliban and the other current extremist Afghan warlord armies which have been fighting the US and allies since 2001..
02.15.10 >>

NEWS UPDATE & OPEN THREAD FOR THE WEEK OF FEBRUARY 8, 2010. ILLINOIS: Governor Pat Quinn (D) won a narrow primary victory last Tuesday over State Comptroller Dan Hynes, who conceded and endorsed Quinn on Thursday. The GOP race remains undecided as State Senator Bill Brady holds a roughly 400 vote lead over State Senator Kirk Dillard. A recount and provisional ballots will decide the ultimate GOP nominee. Meanwhile, a potential embarrassment for Quinn resolved itself Sunday when pawnrboker and suprise Lieutenant Governor nominee Scott Cohen withdrew from the race. Media stories broke Friday that Cohen was deadbeat dad, once held a knife to his prostitute ex-girlfriend's neck, injected himself with steroids, struck and choked his ex-wife, and was once accused of attempted rape. After first insisting he would remain in the race, Cohen was forced to bow out on Sunday. Party leaders will now select a replacement runningmate for Quinn ... LOUISIANA: Lieutenant Governor Mitch Landrieu (D) was elected New Orleans Mayor on Saturday, winning with broad support from the city's white and black voters. Incumbent Mayor Ray Nagin (D) is term-limited. Landrieu won by a wide enough margin that he was elected without requiring a run-off. Landrieu's father -- Moon Landrieu -- previously served as the city's mayor. Governor Bobby Jindal (R) is taking the opportunity of Landrieu's victory to call for a state constitutional amendment to abolish the independently elected Lieutenant Governor position ... MARYLAND: Former State Cabinet member Larry Hogan Jr. (R) ended his exploratory run for Governor last week, saying he now is convinced his former boss -- former Governor Bob Ehrlich (R) -- will announce his candidacy next month against Governor Martin O'Malley (D). Ehrlich was ousted by O'Malley in 2006. Sources also tell Politics1 that former Prince George's County Executive Wayne Curry (D) will shortly announce his primary challenge to O'Malley -- and that attorney and Kennedy family cousin Mark Shriver will likely be Curry's Lieutenant Governor runningmate ... ARKANSAS: Congressman John Boozman (R) had made it official: he's running against US Senator Blanche Lincoln (D). Lincoln's poll numbers are so weak -- she even trails second-tier GOP challengers -- that she is now viewed as the most vulnerable Democratic Senate incumbent in 2010 ... NEW YORK: Rumors continue to swirl that a major sex scandal involving Governor David Paterson (D) will break sometime this week. In an inconsistent response that doesn't quite make sense, Paterson's office acknowledges they are expecting a sex scandal story but preemptively deny the unknown allegations ... TEA PARTY CONVENTION: Former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin (R) was a hit at the controversial for-profit Tea Party gathering this past weekend. Convention attendees warmly greeted Palin's remarks. Former Congressman Tom Tancredo (R-CO) gave the convo's opening speech, and immediately stirred up a controversy. He said that many Obama voters in 2008 couldn't understand the English language nor knew enough US history. Tancredo suggested a return of the outlawed voter literacy/civics tests -- which were used in a discriminatory manner in the South before the 1965 Voting Rights Act to bar blacks from registering to vote -- would have prevented Obama's victory ... NEW MEXICO: Candidate filing for this year's gubernatorial and congressional primaries closes on Tuesday.
02.08.10 >>

NEWS UPDATE & OPEN THREAD FOR THE WEEK OF FEBRUARY 1, 2010. ILLINOIS: Voters go to the polls on Tuesday to cast primary ballots in several hot statewide and congressional race. GOVERNOR - Governor Pat Quinn -- who ascended to office on the removal last year of Governor Rod Blagojevich -- is facing an aggressive challenge in the Democratic primary from State Comptroller Dan Hynes. Hynes has run a sharply negative campaign for months, and the jabs seem to be working. Quinn held the lead for most of the race, but polls and other indicators seem to show Hynes has tied or overtaken Quinn over the past few days. On the GOP side, former Attorney General Jim Ryan was the early frontrunner. However, the GOP contest has turned into a four-way race as former State GOP Chair Andy McKenna, and State Senators Bill Brady and Kirk Dillard have eliminated Ryan's initial name-recognition advantage. McKenna, who is spending heavily from his own pocket, may have the momentum in the closing days -- but any of the four could win in this close and fluid race. US SENATE - In the US Senate contest to replace retiring incumbent Roland Burris (D), centrist Congressman Mark Kirk is a lock to easily win the GOP primary. On the Dem side, State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias leads to field -- but his lead has always been soft. Recent polls placed Giannoulias in the mid-30s, and former Chicago Inspector General David Hoffman and Chicago Urban League President Cheryle Jackson each in the mid-20s. The wealthy Giannoulias has taken some ethics hits in the race, but it remains questionable if Hoffman can can close the gap by Tuesday. Other races to watch include some congressional primaries. CD-8 - Six Republicans are battling to face Congresswoman Melissa Bean (D) in November, as she's a perennial GOP target. CD-10 - Congressman Kirk's open seat, a swing district. State Representative Beth Coulson -- a GOP centrist like Kirk -- should win the five-way primary. Businessman Bob Dold is the most viable conservative in the race, with backing from many of the local Tea Party folks. However, Dold is likely far too conservative to win this seat in November. CD-11 - Former County Commissioner and Iraq War veteran Adam Kinzinger shouldn't have a problem winning the crowded GOP primary, setting up a hot match in the general election against Congresswoman Debbie Halvorson (D). CD-14 - Congressman Bill Foster (D) is another perennial GOP target, ever since he won the special election a few years ago to replace former House Speaker Denny Hastert (R). The two frontrunners in the GOP primary are State Senator Randy Hultgren and attorney Ethan Hastert, son of the former Speaker. Both are conservatives and well-financed. The primary has been nasty, and Dems are again hoping the bitterness between the sides carries over into November ... INDIANA: Congressman Steve Buyer (R) announced Friday he will not seek reelection this year. His wife is terminally ill, and Buyer said he wanted to remove the "stress" on her life caused by his political activities. Buyer may also have stepped down because of an ethics investigation involving allegations he misused funds for personal travel which were collected for a college scholarship fund he created several years ago, but which awarded zero scholarships to date. The CD-4 seat is solidly Republican ... FLORIDA: Voters cast primary ballots on Tuesday in the CD-19 special election to replace former Congressman Robert Wexler (D), who resigned to accept a private sector job. The seat is solidly Democratic, so the Dem primary will decide who wins the special election in April. State Senator Ted Deutch -- Wexler's designated heir -- is expected to win the Dem nomination by a landslide margin.
02.01.10 >>

NEWS UPDATE & OPEN THREAD FOR THE WEEK OF JANUARY 25, 2010. MASSACHUSETTS: US Senator-elect Scott Brown (R) is expected to take office before the end of this coming week. Despite internet rumors to the contrary, Dems apparently have no intention of delaying Brown's seating. He will take his seat as soon as Massachusetts forwards his formal election certification to the US Senate ... ARKANSAS: Here's another unexpected headache for the Dems: Congressman Marion Berry (D) will announce his retirement on Monday morning. This makes the DCCC defend yet another competitive seat, which immediately moves to the toss-up category in the absence of the Democratic incumbent. McCain won 59% in the district in 2008, but Barry had always won comfortable reelection victories in CD-1. Several prominent Dems are looking at the race. Farm broadcaster Rick Crawford is currently the lone GOP candidate for the seat ... ALABAMA: Congressman Parker Griffith (R) isn't receiving the friendly reception from Republican he had expected when he unexpectedly bolted to the GOP a month ago. Two county-level party organizations -- the Madison County Republican Party and the Limestone County Republican Party -- formally adopted resolutions calling on GOP primary voters to reject Griffith in the June primary. "His ideology has not changed. He supported Nancy Pelosi. He contributed money to her. He supported Howard Dean," explained Limestone GOP Chair Jim Burden to FOX News. The Alabama Republican Party, by contrast, continues to stand behind Griffith for this party switch ... TEXAS: Former President George H.W. Bush ("41") and former US Secretary of State Jim Baker last week endorsed US Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison in her GOP primary challenge to incumbent Governor Rick Perry. They join former Vice President Dick Cheney, who previously endorsed Hutchison. By contrast, former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin has endorsed Perry. A Rasmussen poll released last week shows Perry currently leading Hutchison by a 43-33 vote in the GOP primary ... ARIZONA: Former Congressman J.D. Hayworth (R) quit his radio talk show host job last week, as he prepares to make a GOP primary run against US Senator John McCain. "I think we all respect John. I think his place in history is secure. But after close to a quarter-century in Washington, it's time for him to come home," said Hayworth to the Arizona Star. Hayworth plans to make his candidacy official within the next few weeks. A Rasmussen poll last week showed McCain leading Hayworth by a 53-31 vote in the GOP primary, with anti-immigration activist Chris Simcox in third place at 4% ... ARKANSAS #2: With US Senator Blanche Lincoln (D) in polls consistently trailing virtually every one of her potential GOP opponents -- including the second-tier challengers -- we're moving her race into the "Leans GOP" column ... CALIFORNIA: Former Congressman Tom Campbell (R) exited the open gubernatorial contest last week and immediately plunged into the race against US Senator Barbara Boxer (D). Campbell had been trailing former eBay CEO Meg Whitman in polls, and Whitman just last week announced she was moving another $20 million from her pocket into the campaign account (bringing her self-funding total to date to $39 million). The jump, however, appears to have been a good move for the centrist Campbell. A new independent Field Poll shows Campbell leading the GOP Senate primary with 30%, followed by wealthy former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina at 25%, and conservative State Assemblyman Chuck DeVore at 6%. The poll also showed in the general election that Boxer leads Campbell by 10 points, leads Fiorina by 15 points, and leads DeVore by 17 points ... INDIANA: Hotline reported that conservative Congressman Mike Pence -- the House Republican Conference Chair and a potential 2012 White House candidate -- met Friday with NRSC officials to discuss a possible run this year against US Senator Evan Bayh (D). Pence's staff downplayed the meeting, but didn't deny the potential, saying that Pence "is flattered by the speculation but is focused on electing House Republicans and serving the needs of his constituents in Indiana." Former Congressman John Hostettler, State Senator Marlin Stutzman, and three others are already announced GOP candidates against Bayh. Bayh is heavily favored to defeat any of his current challengers.
01.25.10 >>

NEWS UPDATE & OPEN THREAD FOR THE WEEK OF JANUARY 18, 2010. MASSACHUSETTS: Voters go to the polls onm Tuesday in the US Senate special election between State Senator Scott Brown (R), Attorney General Martha Coakley (D) and libertarian activist Joe Kennedy (Independent). Polls for the past week have consistently placed Brown in a narrow lead, with him holding a decisive lead over Coakley with Independent voters. Dems are concerned that Coakley has run a lackluster campaign and seen her once large lead entirely vanish. President Obama visited the state Sunday to try to energize the sizable Democratic base. Dems warn a Brown victory could imperil health care reform and the rest of Obama's pending legislative agenda, as it would deny Senate Democrats the 60 votes they need to hold total control over the chamber. The outcome will be entirely about the turnout, which could be good news for Brown. Stay tuned ... ARKANSAS: Congressman Vic Snyder (D) announced his retirement on Friday, giving the Democrats more bad news. While the CD-2 seat is the most Democratic in the state, Snyder's departure still moves the race into the "Leans GOP" category. Former Karl Rove political associate and former US Attorney Tim Griffin is certain to be the GOP nominee. Dems looking at the race include Lieutenant Governor Bill Halter, Little Rock Mayor Mark Stodola, State Public Service Commissioner Paul Suskie, State House Speaker Robbie Wills, and several other legislators all acknowledge they are seriously looking at the race. With the deep Democratic bench, a solid recruit into this open seat contest will quickly swing it back into the "toss-up" category ... ARIZONA: Congressman John Shadegg (R) announced last week that he also will not seek reelection in 2010. Shadegg was favored to win another term in his CD-3 seat, but the district could be competitive. State Senator Jim Waring and State Representative Sam Crump immediately jumped into the GOP contest, and several other legislators are also expected to run. Dems want to recruit Phoenix Mayor Phil Gordon to run, as he may be the only viable hope they have for the race ... NEW YORK: Former Tennessee Congressman Harold Ford Jr. (D), the current leader of the centrist Democratic Leadership Council, is hiring staffer as he prepares to enter the race against interim US Senator Kirsten Gillibrand (D). Ford, who now works on Wall Street, has quickly changed several of his past stances. He switched from pro-life to pro-choice, and renounced his past vote in favor of a constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage. Ford says he now supports full same-sex marriage rights. A new Siena Research poll shows Gillibrand leading Ford 41-17 in a potential primary matchup. However, as Ford seems to running with the backing of consultants and associates closely aligned with New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg, there is a belief Ford is actually positioning himself to run as an Independent in the general election ... MINNESOTA: Despite recent polling data that showed former US Senator Norm Coleman was the strongest potential GOP candidate for Governor, Coleman said this past weekend that he will not run. "This is not the right time for me and my family to conduct a campaign for Governor. The timing on this race is both a bit too soon and a bit too late," explained Coleman. He lost an incredibly close race for reelection in 2006, but lost some public support at home when he brought legal challenges during that stretched out the recount process for nearly a half-year ... HAITI: The poor and long-suffering people of Haiti were hit hard last Tuesday by a catastrophic 7.0 earthquake. The death toll now is clearly in excess of 100,000. The nation's infrastructure -- already the worst and poorest in the Western Hemisphere -- was largely wiped out. Please join us by helping those in need. Contribute whatever amount you can to those groups making a difference on the ground. I'd particularly recommend giving to Oxfam and Mercy Corps, as they provide direct services with among the lowest overhead rates of any humanitarian NGOs in the world. That means more of your dollars get where they are needed most.
01.18.10 >>

NEWS UPDATE & OPEN THREAD FOR THE WEEK OF JANUARY 11, 2010. MASSACHUSETTS: The US Senate special election is just a week away, and independent polls are showing wildly varying numbers. The Public Policy Polling-D survey placed State Senator Scott Brown (R) ahead of Attorney General Martha Coakley (D) by a 48-47 vote. By contrast, a new Boston Globe poll released Sunday shows Coakley leading by a 50-35 vote, with libertarian activist Joe Kennedy (Independent) at 5%. A Rasmussen poll earlier in the week showed: Coakley - 50%, Brown - 41%, Kennedy - 1%. The state is solidly Democratic, so Coakley's greatest problem is simply voter apathy among a complacent Dem base versus motivated Republicans. In a special election like this contest, the outcome will be entirely decided by turnout ... CONNECTICUT: The retirement announcement this past week of US Senator Chris Dodd (D) appears to be good news for Democrats. Dodd had ethics problems and was trailing his leading GOP rival for months in the polls. With Dodd out, popular Attorney General Richard Blumenthal (D) immediately jumped into the contest. Democratic leaders appear to be quickly unifying behind Blumenthal. Former Congressman Rob Simmons and former pro-wrestling executive Linda McMahon are the leading GOP candidates. With Dodd out and Blumenthal in, we'd move this race rating from "Toss-Up" to "Leans Dem" ... NORTH DAKOTA: US Senator Byron Dorgan (D) announced his 2010 retirement on the same day as Dodd, but this is bad news for the Democrats. With Dorgan out, Governor John Hoeven (R) -- who was readying to enter the race against Dorgan -- is a heavy favorite to win this seat for the GOP. Dems are scrambling to find a candidate, as Congressman Earl Pomeroy (D) quickly said he would not run for Senate. Dorgan and some Dem leaders are trying to convince progressive talk show host Ed Schultz to run ... COLORADO: In a surprise move, Governor Bill Ritter (D) also announced his retirement last week. Ritter's poll numbers had slumped recently and he was now trailing former Congressman Scott McInnis (R). With Ritter out, folksy Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper quickly emerged as the Dem frontrunner for Governor. US Interior Secretary and former US Senator Ken Salazar (D) was interested in running, but he quickly stepped aside and warmly endorsed Hickenlooper. Congressman Ed Perlmutter was also reported to be interested in the race, but he would run only if Hickenlooper decides stay out. This is bad news for the GOP, as polls show the populist Hickenlooper is stronger than Ritter, and deprives McInnis of what had been his anti-incumbent message ... PENNSYLVANIA: Congressman Jim Gerlach (R) unexpectedly quit the gubernatorial contest on Thursday, and instead announced Friday he would seek reelection. However, it appears most of the Republicans who had been running to replace Gerlach in the CD-6 race now intend to remain in primary contest against Gerlach. State Representative Curt Schroder, venture capitalist Steve Welch, geologist Walt Hufford and Tea Party activist Pat Sellers all released statements saying they each intended to continue running. Only former State Revenue Secretary Howard Cohen (R) quit the race and endorsed Gerlach. CD-6 is a swing seat, and the Dems also have strong candidates in the race. A costly GOP primary could drain financial resources needed for the general election ... TEXAS: Primary filing closed in Texas this past week and a majority of the state's GOP Congressional delegation now find themselves facing primary challengers from the "Tea Party" anti-tax movement. In the case of Congressman Ralph Hall (R), he has five primary challengers including a wealthy businessman and three Tea Party activists.
01.11.10 >>

NEWS UPDATE & OPEN THREAD FOR THE WEEK OF JANUARY 4, 2010. HAPPY NEW YEAR: First, my best wishes to all for a happy, healthy and successful year ahead (except, of course, to my mother's primary opponent, as I don't wish him success -- but I will graciously wish him good health). Now, on to some news ... TEXAS: Congressman Ralph Hall (R) just filed paperwork to seek a 16th term in 2010. Hall, age 86 and recently widowed, is the oldest member of the US House. He was thought to be a possible retirement prospect. Hall told the Dallas Morning News he is running again because he wants to "change the direction of government ... I like what I'm doing up here. I know what I'm doing up here. And I want to keep doing it, as long as I'm strong enough to know that I'm doing it right." He faces several GOP primary challengers, but Hall is favored to easily win again. No Democrat has yet filed for the seat ... NEW HAMPSHIRE: In the open US Senate race, former Attorney General Kelly Ayotte (R) is leading Congressman Paul Hodes (D) by a 43-36 vote, according to a new ARG poll. Former State Board of Education Chair Ovide Lamontagne (R) also leads Hodes in a matchup: 37-31 ... ARIZONA: Former Congressman J.D. Hayworth appears to be moving towards a GOP primary challenge against US Senator John McCain. A December poll found McCain leading the conservative Hayworth by a nominal margin. Hayworth, now working as a bombastic radio talk show host in Arizona, last week on his show sounded like a candidate: "We may have moved past 'due diligence' into something that is more than a legal term of art ... something called 'testing the waters.' So stay tuned on that." Former Attorney General Grant Woods (R), who previously served as McCain's chief of staff, filed a Federal Election Commission complaint against Hayworth in December, alleging that Hayworth is already a de facto candidate who is improperly using his radio show (i.e., accepting corporate contributions from the radio station) to illegally promote his candidacy without filing any federal paperwork ... CALIFORNIA: Eight-term Congressman George Radanovich (R) announced his retirement, saying he wants to spend more time with his very ill wife. He immediately endorsed State Senator Jeff Denham (R) as his successor for the CD-19 seat. Denham already has over $1 million in his campaign account from a recently aborted 2010 run for Lieutenant Governor. Other Republicans -- including former Fresno Mayor Jim Patterson and former CD-11 Congressman Dick Pombo -- are reportedly looking at the contest. Two Dems are also announced candidates, but the district demographics favor the GOP.
01.03.10 >>

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